What a crazy couple of weeks. I have had one screen on actual work, and the other on GME and twitter for longer than I care to disclose at this point. But I figure now is a good time to step back and log some performance metrics, as well as updates on my 5 top […]
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Mid December portfolio updates
There have been some significant changes to my portfolio over the past couple weeks, including adjustments to positions I hadn’t even posted on here yet. I figured, therefore, it would be worth posting a quick update on the major position additions and reductions. Here is how my portfolio has changed over the past week: Name […]
Ambac – the catalyst finally comes?
Note: This post was originally posted on Dec 11 2020. However, it was updated January 24th 2021 to reflect current thinking. Ambac is currently close to a pure-play special situations bet, and seems to have a 2.9x – 3.6x upside, with a ~20% downside. I’ve been working on this idea for a while now, and […]
Portfolio update – close out of NKLA puts
As it is the first of my first active month, and I just exited (most of) my NKLA puts, I figured I share a quick update. Last Friday (Nov 27th) I allocated ~5% of my portfolio into (a) 12/11 NKLA $23.5 Puts for $1.6 each, and (b) 12/18 NKLA $27 puts for $3.2 each, with […]
Nikola – a catalytic short
I don’t think any stock quite sums up the mania of 2020 quite like Nikola (NKLA). With no sales, no plan to reach sales, and a small market, it reached a market cap of over $30B. Soon after, the company was accused of fraud, at which points the stock took a ~45% slide, before almost […]
Reverse engineering 13F – Seth Klarman / Baupost (Part 1)
Back when I last switched jobs, one of my favorite things to do before I interviewed at a firm, was try and reverse engineer their positions. I would sometimes throw a bullet or two on this onto my resume, but would usually at least be able to sprinkle in a couple very relevant questions at […]
Portfolio update — closing out of FSR options
I’m realizing today that I haven’t laid out much of my portfolio allocation yet. But wanted to write a quick post updating y’all with a quick position change, as well as a longer update on portfolio allocation. FSR options (Nov 20th Call, @$15) To recap– when looking through monthly losses, I thought the upside of […]
Oct. 2020 – End of Month Down 30
I have been inspired by Value and Opportunities “All German Shares” segment, where they week by week work through every share listed in Germany. I have always believed the systematic analysis of opportunities can lead to some pretty spectacular results. However, to pragmatically find opportunities in a mostly efficient (and mostly overpriced) market, we need […]
Impact of asymmetries on diversification — reconciling Buffett and Markowitz
At the ’96 Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, a question was raised about diversification, to which Warren replies with the following: We think diversification, as practiced, makes very little sense for anyone that knows what they’re doing. Diversification is a protection against ignorance. It is a perfectly sound approach for somebody who doesn’t feel they know […]
Howard Hughes Corp (HHC): a deep value SOTP analysis
Introduction and context I’ve been watching Howard Hughes Corp (HHC) since Bill Ackman of Pershing Square spoke about it at Sohn in 2017. HHC’s is a real estate development company whose primary method of generating returns is building communities such that added developments further increase the value of their remaining holdings. They also hold onto, […]